Scenario Settings
Evacuation Scenario |
No Prediction - No Evacuation |
No Prediction - Disorganized Evacuation |
Prediction - Disorganized Evacuation |
Prediction - Organized Evacuation |
Index of scenario |
S11 |
S12 |
S21 |
S22 |
Scenario Probability |
P1*P11 |
P1*P12 |
P2*P21 |
P2*P22 |
Advanced Warning |
Not available |
Not available |
Yes |
Yes |
Time of warning |
N/A |
2 |
-2 |
-2 |
Time of response to warning |
N/A |
Slow-Response (4) |
Quick Response(2) |
Gradual Response (phrasal by flood zone type)(0, 2, 4) |
Exits Selection |
N/A |
Static |
Static |
Dynamic |
Routing Optimization |
N/A |
SP |
SP |
CASPER |
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It is assumed that once prediction for the flood is available, the time to deliver the warnings of flood is 2 hours prior to the actual occurrence of the dike-break (t=0), while in scenario S12 warning is delayed by 2 hours because it is assumed that the flood happened totally unexpected. Warning information is delivered by media (TV news, broadcasting or internet). Therefore, the time when warning is delivered much be later than the actual occurrence of the flood.
Times of response to warning are specified for different evacuation scenarios. For scenario S12 (no prediction – disorganized evacuation), since only fraction of population are informed the flood warning via unofficial media, people need some time to pass on messages to family members or friends who are not informed yet. Also, additional time is spent in verifying authenticity of the warnings. Therefore, in this situation, response time is longer than that in scenarios with prediction and organizations. In scenario S21, early prediction and lack of organizations cause some degree of panic, so people start departure earlier. In scenario S22, while evacuation organization is in presence, people living in remaining zones (with lower risk of being inundated) are arranged to evacuate 2 hours later than those in high-risk areas (zones with rapid rising water). Assumptions about Departure Curve
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